Recordable DVD Sales Climb As Solutions
Emerge
Prices Fall
Peddie Reports Hardware, Software, Media, Consumer Interest Aligned
for Dramatic Sales Growth Potential, Voices Concern of Hollywood's Challenge
of Consumer's Use
NEW YORK CITY (June 25, 2002) -- Recordable DVD drive sales will top
10 million units this year -- up from 1.3 million in 2001 -- and will
surpass more than 40 million units by 2004, Jon Peddie, president of
Jon Peddie Research, predicted during a press conference here today.
He explained that the rapid growth would be fueled by dramatically lower
cost of hardware, media and video production software as well as the
growing installed base of players.
Peddie made the prediction today during the Recordable DVD Council (RDVDC)
event at the Jacob Javits Center where the organization unveiled some
of the newest DVD camcorders, DVD players, DVD recorders and DVD multifunction
drives. The 94-member Council focuses on promoting products that comply
with the DVD Forum recordable DVD formats (DVD-RAM, DVD-R, DVD-RW).
Drawing on his nearly 20 years of his research and analysis experience
in the digital marketplace, Peddie noted that there are more than 150
million home DVD players in use today. By 2004 he projects the installed
base will grow to more than 300 million machines.
With digital camcorder shipments increasing to more than 15 million
units this next year, he noted that a new breed of low-cost video production
software is also gaining widespread growth. The new software makes it
easy for consumers to produce high quality personal DVD movies that
people actually want to watch.
Peddie said that the DVD Forum's Multi standard has solved most of the
concerns consumers have had regarding compatibility. He added that in
his opinion most of the rewritable "issues" are moot and that
DVD usage will mimic CD usage.
"We need to listen to the consumer and not the religious zealots,"
he emphasized. "People want two features in their DVD products:
compatibility and low cost. People will make their own video DVDs just
like they make their own audio CDs. DVD-R will be the most widely used
media because it can be played on virtually every DVD player and drive,
especially those sold in the past two years. The rewritable technology
- DVD-RW or DVD-RAM - will be chosen based on the individual's other
applications."
He added that the most inexpensive DVD-R media is currently available
for $1-$2 for a 2-hour disc and prices will continue to drop as usage
increases.
Concerning the new DVD recorders, he said they are rapidly changing
the television landscape. "People are increasingly capturing TV
shows, zapping commercials and watching the shows when it's convenient
for them rather than the networks or stations.
I believe the time has come when consumers will take direct
control of their personal entertainment in terms of the video content
they develop as well as the content that is delivered to their TV set."
During the press conference, Peddie voiced concern that Hollywood, using
its political weight, may try to place major roadblocks in the way of
consumers being able to make fair use of DVD.
"Hollywood has forgotten that they predicted video tape would cripple
their industry but has actually increased theater viewing and home video
sales and rentals," he said. "They seem to be determined to
prohibit law-abiding home consumers from recording on their DVD drives
and recorders. Fortunately all of the manufacturers and their trade
associations are just as determined not the let Hollywood brand us all
as criminals."
Despite the challenge by Hollywood, Peddie said that recordable DVD
sales will grow steadily over the next five years as people replace
their tape storage and playback devices with the higher quality, more
reliable digital video solution.
For more information on Jon Peddie Research or a copy of Peddie's presentation,
contact JPR at 415.435.9368; fax 415.435.8214 or email jon@jonpeddie.com
The DVD Forum is an industry association whose more than 200 members
include all major DVD manufacturers as well as major DVD software developers
and DVD media producers around the world. For more information, visit
www.dvdforum.org.
The 94-member Recordable DVD Council (RDVDC) is dedicated to advancing
DVD Forum-standard recordable DVD technologies and products worldwide.
It provides education, fosters the exchange of information and stimulates
new applications. For more information on the RDVDC, contact Tony Jasionowski,
RDVDC North American Liaison Director, at 201.348.7777 or jasionowskit@rdvdc.org.
Visit the Council's website at http://www.rdvdc.org/english., at 201.348.7777
or jasionowskit@rdvdc.org. Visit the Council's website at http://www.rdvdc.org/english.
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